UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
7-1 | Road
80
LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
2-7 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
0%
BEACH
100%
TRITONS
--
BEACH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSD -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
UCSD By 1-7 points
4.0%
UCSD By 8-14 points
12.2%
LBSU By 1-7 points
0.6%
LBSU By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
UC San Diego
74
UC SAN DIEGO
Long Beach State
50
LONG BEACH STATE
Simulated Score
UC San Diego
72
UC SAN DIEGO
Long Beach State
75
LONG BEACH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tritons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beach
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tritons (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Beach (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
LBSU @ UCSD
74 - 77
Dec 6, 2025
UCSD @ LBSU
80 - 74
Mar 6, 2025
LBSU @ UCSD
63 - 70
Jan 16, 2025
UCSD @ LBSU
80 - 54
Feb 3, 2024
UCSD @ LBSU
76 - 85
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.4%
UC San Diego: 40.7%
vs
Long Beach State: 33.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
UC San Diego: 49.6%
vs
Long Beach State: 42.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+58.3% more
Long Beach State: 11.3
vs
UC San Diego: 7.2
Blocks (L5)
+46.0% more
Long Beach State: 3.1
vs
UC San Diego: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score
74.0
80
LBSU Score
50.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 40.7
32.0 / 45.0
Assists
14.3 / 14.0
13.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.1 / 2.1
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 49.6
46.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
68.5 / 64.1
70.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
33.6 / 33.8
32.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.2 / 6.5
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 7.2
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LBSU
UCSD
LBSU
UCSD
ML
55%
17-14
56%
19-15
65%
20-11
65%
22-12
ATS
68%
21-10
50%
17-17
65%
20-11
65%
22-12
TTL
61%
19-12
62%
21-13
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
