Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Broncos @ Lobos SCU @ UNM

SANTA CLARA

BRONCOSSCU

8-1  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 9:00 PM ET
The Pit
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

6-2  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
LOBOS
100%
BRONCOS --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SANTA CLARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Santa Clara)
BroncosSCU (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

91.9%

Lobos Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SCU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SCU)

SCU By 1-7 points

16.9%

SCU By 8-14 points

26.2%

UNM By 1-7 points

5.8%

UNM By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
73
SANTA CLARA
59
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
71
SANTA CLARA
78
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 SCU @ UNM 71 - 98
Dec 9, 2023 SCU @ UNM 76 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +23.5% more
Santa Clara: 5.0 vs New Mexico: 3.9
Assists (L5) +10.5% more
Santa Clara: 20.3 vs New Mexico: 18.2
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Santa Clara: 46.6% vs New Mexico: 44.2%
Rebounding (L5) +12.0% more
New Mexico: 40.0 vs Santa Clara: 35.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SCU Score 73.0 71
UNM Score 59.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 33.9 39.0 / 23.0
Assists 18.2 / 20.3 18.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.9 / 5.0 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 46.6 60.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 73.4 / 65.6 88.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 35.7 35.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.2 / 8.9 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 11.5 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
6%MONEY94%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCU Advantage
26-9-0 (74.3%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +2.6
UNM
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCU
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +2.6
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SCU
20-13-1
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +4.0
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
SCU
UNM
SCU
ML
57% 21-16
44% 15-19
74% 25-9
73% 22-8
ATS
57% 21-16
53% 18-16
74% 25-9
74% 23-8
TTL
41% 15-22
47% 16-18
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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