HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
15-5 | Road
109
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
8-16 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
ROCKETS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
199.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
6.8%
HOU By 8-14 points
16.9%
DAL By 1-7 points
1.4%
DAL By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
110
HOUSTON
Dallas
89
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Houston
112
HOUSTON
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u221.0
Loss
Proj Total: 199.0
D
Sim
u221.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
DAL @ HOU
107 - 111
Jan 3, 2026
HOU @ DAL
104 - 110
Dec 6, 2025
HOU @ DAL
109 - 122
Nov 3, 2025
DAL @ HOU
102 - 110
Mar 14, 2025
DAL @ HOU
96 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+40.3% more
Houston: 9.3
vs
Dallas: 5.5
Blocks (L5)
+35.9% more
Houston: 7.0
vs
Dallas: 4.5
Turnovers (L5)
+31.2% more
Houston: 17.8
vs
Dallas: 12.2
Rebounding (L5)
+14.2% more
Houston: 48.4
vs
Dallas: 41.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
110.0
109
DAL Score
89.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.1 / 40.5
37.0 / 34.0
Assists
28.4 / 25.3
22.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.5 / 7.0
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 52.0
60.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
74.1 / 82.5
85.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
41.5 / 48.4
31.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.5 / 9.3
13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 17.8
13.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DAL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
HOU
DAL
HOU
ML
62%
63-39
61%
69-44
54%
44-37
59%
51-35
ATS
67%
68-34
62%
70-43
54%
44-37
59%
51-35
TTL
59%
60-41-1
51%
58-55
100%
81-0
100%
86-0
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