Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Knights @ Racers BELL @ MUR

BELLARMINE

KNIGHTSBELL

4-4  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 3:00 PM ET
CFSB Center
View Odds Details →

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

6-3  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
📊
RACERS
0%
KNIGHTS --
RACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Murray State)
KnightsBELL (-3.5) 0 RacersMUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

15.9%

Racers Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MUR -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

BELL By 1-7 points

10.7%

BELL By 8-14 points

3.3%

MUR By 1-7 points

23.0%

MUR By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
67
BELLARMINE
77
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
65
BELLARMINE
72
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Racers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Racers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Racers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Racers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 BELL @ MUR 68 - 81
Dec 10, 2022 MUR @ BELL 58 - 69
Nov 13, 2021 BELL @ MUR 59 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +47.9% more
Murray State: 2.9 vs Bellarmine: 1.9
Rebounding (L5) +46.6% more
Murray State: 43.0 vs Bellarmine: 29.3
Turnovers (L5) +15.6% more
Murray State: 12.1 vs Bellarmine: 10.5
Steals (L5) +42.0% more
Bellarmine: 8.5 vs Murray State: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BELL Score 67.0 68
MUR Score 77.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 37.7 37.0 / 33.0
Assists 14.9 / 15.9 18.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.9 / 1.9 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 56.0 53.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 82.8 91.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 43.0 / 29.3 35.0 / 18.0
Steals 4.9 / 8.5 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 10.5 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BELL
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BELL Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.2
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
BELL
MUR
BELL
ML
58% 19-14
72% 23-9
61% 20-13
94% 29-2
ATS
52% 17-16
72% 23-9
61% 20-13
94% 29-2
TTL
70% 23-10
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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