PACIFIC
TIGERSPAC
7-2 | Road
61
CALIFORNIA
GOLDEN BEARSCAL
7-1 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
TIGERS
--
GOLDEN BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (California)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CAL -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)
PAC By 1-7 points
1.1%
PAC By 8-14 points
0.1%
CAL By 1-7 points
5.8%
CAL By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pacific
50
PACIFIC
California
72
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
Pacific
65
PACIFIC
California
78
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Bears
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Bears (+8)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Golden Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
PAC @ CAL
61 - 67
Nov 10, 2023
PAC @ CAL
87 - 79
Dec 22, 2021
PAC @ CAL
53 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+27.0% more
California: 4.2
vs
Pacific: 3.3
Assists (L5)
+14.6% more
California: 14.6
vs
Pacific: 12.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.6%
California: 40.7%
vs
Pacific: 31.1%
Steals (L5)
+16.3% more
Pacific: 6.7
vs
California: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PAC Score
50.0
61
CAL Score
72.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.7 / 31.1
38.0 / 30.0
Assists
14.6 / 12.7
13.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.3
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 48.5
46.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
77.0 / 80.7
57.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
36.2 / 40.2
31.0 / 42.0
Steals
5.6 / 6.7
2.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 11.7
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PAC
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
CAL
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PAC
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
CAL
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
PAC
CAL
PAC
ML
61%
20-13
45%
15-18
77%
24-7
80%
24-6
ATS
64%
21-12
55%
18-15
78%
25-7
80%
24-6
TTL
70%
23-10
58%
19-14
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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