Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pioneers @ Bengals DEN @ IDST

DENVER

PIONEERSDEN

3-5  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 6:00 PM ET
Reed Gym
View Odds Details →

IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

5-4  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
0%
📊
BENGALS
100%
PIONEERS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Denver)
PioneersDEN (-3.5) 0 BengalsIDST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

61.8%

Bengals Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

27.2%

DEN By 8-14 points

20.1%

IDST By 1-7 points

21.6%

IDST By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
56
DENVER
53
IDAHO STATE
Simulated Score
71
DENVER
75
IDAHO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pioneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pioneers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 DEN @ IDST 79 - 93
Jan 3, 2024 IDST @ DEN 82 - 95
Nov 18, 2022 DEN @ IDST 70 - 69
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.0%
Denver: 36.9% vs Idaho State: 28.9%
Blocks (L5) +224.4% more
Idaho State: 5.1 vs Denver: 1.6
Rebounding (L5) +30.2% more
Idaho State: 36.5 vs Denver: 28.0
Assists (L5) +27.0% more
Idaho State: 13.4 vs Denver: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 56.0 79
IDST Score 53.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.9 / 36.9 52.0 / 26.0
Assists 13.4 / 10.5 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 5.1 / 1.6 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 43.8 50.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 76.2 / 75.2 78.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 28.0 32.0 / 29.0
Steals 6.0 / 5.4 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 10.3 6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
IDST
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
17-11-1 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
IDST
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.0
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDST
DEN
IDST
DEN
ML
59% 19-13
56% 18-14
72% 23-9
59% 19-13
ATS
50% 16-16
66% 21-11
72% 23-9
59% 19-13
TTL
59% 19-13
59% 19-13
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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