CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
4-5 | Road
84
UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
7-2 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
0%
GAUCHOS
100%
ROADRUNNERS
--
GAUCHOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Cal State Bakersfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUB -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUB)
CSUB By 1-7 points
27.2%
CSUB By 8-14 points
23.0%
UCSB By 1-7 points
18.6%
UCSB By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Bakersfield
79
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
UC Santa Barbara
74
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
Cal State Bakersfield
68
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
UC Santa Barbara
72
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Roadrunners
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gauchos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Roadrunners (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Gauchos (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 15, 2026
UCSB @ CSUB
75 - 69
Dec 6, 2025
CSUB @ UCSB
84 - 109
Mar 12, 2025
CSUB @ UCSB
66 - 71
Feb 6, 2025
UCSB @ CSUB
81 - 75
Jan 9, 2025
CSUB @ UCSB
66 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+56.9% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 5.2
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 2.3
Turnovers (L5)
+16.5% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 16.2
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 13.5
Assists (L5)
+29.0% more
UC Santa Barbara: 12.5
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 9.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.8%
UC Santa Barbara: 34.3%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 20.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUB Score
79.0
84
UCSB Score
74.0
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 20.5
48.0 / 53.0
Assists
12.5 / 9.7
25.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.3 / 5.2
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 40.3
56.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
80.9 / 78.1
79.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
35.4 / 36.0
40.0 / 22.0
Steals
7.5 / 7.5
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 16.2
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
UCSB
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
UCSB
Advantage
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
CSUB
UCSB
CSUB
ML
59%
19-13
55%
17-14
72%
23-9
71%
22-9
ATS
62%
20-12
61%
19-12
72%
23-9
71%
22-9
TTL
47%
15-17
58%
18-13
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
