UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
5-3 | Road
73
BUCKNELL
BISONBUCK
2-8 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
100%
BISON
0%
RETRIEVERS
--
BISON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
BUCKNELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Bucknell)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BUCK -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUCK)
UMBC By 1-7 points
20.1%
UMBC By 8-14 points
9.3%
BUCK By 1-7 points
27.4%
BUCK By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
UMBC
74
UMBC
Bucknell
78
BUCKNELL
Simulated Score
UMBC
68
UMBC
Bucknell
72
BUCKNELL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bison
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bison
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bison (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Bison (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
UMBC @ BUCK
73 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+28.5% more
Bucknell: 5.9
vs
UMBC: 4.6
Turnovers (L5)
+20.5% more
Bucknell: 13.6
vs
UMBC: 11.3
Blocks (L5)
+39.0% more
UMBC: 3.4
vs
Bucknell: 2.1
Rebounding (L5)
+13.5% more
UMBC: 37.4
vs
Bucknell: 32.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score
74.0
73
BUCK Score
78.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 35.0
25.0 / 39.0
Assists
13.7 / 13.4
14.0 / 18.0
Blocks
2.1 / 3.4
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
40.7 / 46.9
39.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
70.5 / 72.8
71.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
32.4 / 37.4
34.0 / 32.0
Steals
5.9 / 4.6
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 11.3
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
BUCK
10-23-0
(30.3%)
Margin: -8.9
ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
BUCK
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -8.9
ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
BUCK
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUCK
UMBC
BUCK
UMBC
ML
55%
18-15
58%
18-13
64%
21-12
55%
17-14
ATS
45%
15-18
68%
21-10
64%
21-12
55%
17-14
TTL
61%
20-13
39%
12-19
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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