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UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

1-8  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 4:00 PM ET
Minges Coliseum
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

3-5  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
PIRATES
0%
SPARTANS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (East Carolina)
SpartansUNCG (-3.5) 0 PiratesECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

21.2%

Pirates Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ECU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

UNCG By 1-7 points

13.7%

UNCG By 8-14 points

4.8%

ECU By 1-7 points

25.3%

ECU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
61
UNC GREENSBORO
69
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
68
UNC GREENSBORO
72
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 UNCG @ ECU 82 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +45.0% more
East Carolina: 7.0 vs UNC Greensboro: 4.8
Blocks (L5) +17.4% more
East Carolina: 2.8 vs UNC Greensboro: 2.4
Turnovers (L5) +14.5% more
East Carolina: 14.2 vs UNC Greensboro: 12.4
Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
UNC Greensboro: 44.9% vs East Carolina: 39.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCG Score 61.0 82
ECU Score 69.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 34.3 25.0 / 24.0
Assists 9.9 / 10.0 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.4 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 39.0 / 44.9 48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 72.3 63.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 32.3 38.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.0 / 4.8 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 12.4 15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCG Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCG Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
UNCG
ECU
UNCG
ML
55% 17-14
38% 13-21
55% 17-14
71% 24-10
ATS
52% 16-15
44% 15-19
55% 17-14
71% 24-10
TTL
61% 19-12
76% 26-8
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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