Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Aces @ Hilltoppers EVAN @ WKU

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

4-5  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 4:00 PM ET
E.A. Diddle Arena
View Odds Details →

WESTERN KENTUCKY

HILLTOPPERSWKU

5-2  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE ACES
0%
📊
HILLTOPPERS
100%
PURPLE ACES --
HILLTOPPERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
EVANSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Evansville)
Purple AcesEVAN (-3.5) 0 HilltoppersWKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Aces Cover

57.9%

Hilltoppers Cover

42.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around EVAN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EVAN)

EVAN By 1-7 points

26.8%

EVAN By 8-14 points

18.6%

WKU By 1-7 points

23.0%

WKU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
63
EVANSVILLE
61
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
71
EVANSVILLE
78
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Purple Aces Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hilltoppers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Purple Aces (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Hilltoppers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 EVAN @ WKU 79 - 80
Dec 7, 2024 WKU @ EVAN 79 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +26.4% more
Evansville: 4.4 vs Western Kentucky: 3.2
Turnovers (L5) +11.1% more
Evansville: 13.4 vs Western Kentucky: 11.9
Steals (L5) +54.3% more
Western Kentucky: 7.6 vs Evansville: 4.9
Rebounding (L5) +28.2% more
Western Kentucky: 40.6 vs Evansville: 31.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EVAN Score 63.0 79
WKU Score 61.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 24.3 45.0 / 44.0
Assists 12.1 / 12.3 16.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.4 2.0 / 11.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 41.8 44.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 73.3 / 73.4 74.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 40.6 / 31.6 41.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.6 / 4.9 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 13.4 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
WKU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EVAN
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
WKU Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
EVAN
WKU
EVAN
ML
56% 18-14
56% 18-14
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
ATS
53% 17-15
66% 21-11
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
TTL
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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