Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Highlanders @ Mustangs UCR @ CP

UC RIVERSIDE

HIGHLANDERSUCR

4-4  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Mott Athletics Center
View Odds Details →

CAL POLY

MUSTANGSCP

4-5  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
100%
📊
MUSTANGS
0%
HIGHLANDERS --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Cal Poly)
HighlandersUCR (-3.5) 0 MustangsCP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Highlanders Cover

0.6%

Mustangs Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CP -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)

UCR By 1-7 points

0.5%

UCR By 8-14 points

0.1%

CP By 1-7 points

3.3%

CP By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
65
UC RIVERSIDE
90
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
73
UC RIVERSIDE
67
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mustangs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Highlanders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mustangs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Highlanders (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 CP @ UCR 94 - 87
Dec 6, 2025 UCR @ CP 88 - 84
Mar 13, 2025 CP @ UCR 96 - 83
Feb 22, 2025 UCR @ CP 100 - 112
Feb 1, 2025 CP @ UCR 62 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +75.0% more
Cal Poly: 7.7 vs UC Riverside: 4.4
Turnovers (L5) +57.5% more
Cal Poly: 19.6 vs UC Riverside: 12.5
Assists (L5) +29.0% more
Cal Poly: 14.4 vs UC Riverside: 11.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.7%
Cal Poly: 41.0% vs UC Riverside: 31.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCR Score 65.0 88
CP Score 90.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.0 / 31.3 31.0 / 22.0
Assists 14.4 / 11.2 12.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.6 / 4.6 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 43.5 47.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 78.1 / 71.5 81.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 34.8 34.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.7 / 4.4 2.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 19.6 / 12.5 13.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
CP Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR
14-14-2 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
CP Advantage
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.3
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
UCR
CP
UCR
ML
58% 19-14
66% 21-11
58% 19-14
75% 24-8
ATS
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
75% 24-8
TTL
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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