Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Razorbacks FRES @ ARK

FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

6-3  |  Road

58
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 4:00 PM ET
Simmons Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

RAZORBACKSARK

6-2  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
RAZORBACKS
0%
BULLDOGS --
RAZORBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
189.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-47.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +47.0 points (Arkansas)
BulldogsFRES (-3.5) 0 RazorbacksARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

0.0%

Razorbacks Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARK -47.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)

FRES By 1-7 points

0.0%

FRES By 8-14 points

0.0%

ARK By 1-7 points

0.0%

ARK By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
71
FRESNO STATE
118
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
67
FRESNO STATE
78
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Razorbacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Razorbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Razorbacks (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -47.0
D
Sim Razorbacks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 189.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 FRES @ ARK 58 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +107.2% more
Arkansas: 4.3 vs Fresno State: 2.1
Free Throw % (L5) +11.0%
Arkansas: 79.8% vs Fresno State: 68.8%
Assists (L5) +9.5% more
Arkansas: 16.3 vs Fresno State: 14.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Arkansas: 35.8% vs Fresno State: 30.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 71.0 58
ARK Score 118.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 30.9 37.0 / 15.0
Assists 16.3 / 14.9 18.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.1 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 45.4 45.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 79.8 / 68.8 65.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 36.6 39.0 / 41.0
Steals 7.3 / 7.5 11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 13.3 8.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
ARK Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
ARK
23-14-0 (62.2%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
FRES
ARK
FRES
ML
68% 25-12
59% 19-13
81% 25-6
74% 23-8
ATS
70% 26-11
75% 24-8
81% 25-6
74% 23-8
TTL
57% 21-16
56% 18-14
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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