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FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

5-4  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

COUGARSHOU

8-1  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
SEMINOLES
100%
📊
COUGARS
0%
SEMINOLES --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Houston)
SeminolesFSU (-3.5) 0 CougarsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seminoles Cover

2.3%

Cougars Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

FSU By 1-7 points

1.7%

FSU By 8-14 points

0.3%

HOU By 1-7 points

8.0%

HOU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
49
FLORIDA STATE
69
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
65
FLORIDA STATE
72
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 FSU @ HOU 67 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +17.7%
Houston: 77.3% vs Florida State: 59.6%
Rebounding (L5) +15.0% more
Houston: 40.6 vs Florida State: 35.3
Assists (L5) +14.3% more
Houston: 15.7 vs Florida State: 13.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
Houston: 34.2% vs Florida State: 27.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 49.0 67
HOU Score 69.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 27.5 38.0 / 31.0
Assists 15.7 / 13.7 23.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.4 / 5.3 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 38.9 49.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 59.6 78.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 40.6 / 35.3 35.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.2 / 10.5 15.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.1 / 12.7 13.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
HOU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
HOU
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
FSU
HOU
FSU
ML
70% 26-11
64% 21-12
68% 23-11
59% 19-13
ATS
70% 26-11
55% 18-15
68% 23-11
59% 19-13
TTL
59% 22-15
48% 16-17
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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