UTAH VALLEY
WOLVERINESUVU
6-3 | Road
82
BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
6-3 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
100%
FALCONS
0%
WOLVERINES
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Bowling Green)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BGSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)
UVU By 1-7 points
15.3%
UVU By 8-14 points
5.8%
BGSU By 1-7 points
26.2%
BGSU By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah Valley
76
UTAH VALLEY
Bowling Green
83
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
Utah Valley
68
UTAH VALLEY
Bowling Green
72
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Falcons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Falcons (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Falcons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
UVU @ BGSU
82 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.3%
Bowling Green: 73.8%
vs
Utah Valley: 70.5%
Blocks (L5)
+48.6% more
Utah Valley: 5.1
vs
Bowling Green: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+20.8% more
Utah Valley: 15.6
vs
Bowling Green: 12.3
Steals (L5)
+20.7% more
Utah Valley: 10.0
vs
Bowling Green: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVU Score
76.0
82
BGSU Score
83.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.5 / 39.3
17.0 / 36.0
Assists
15.7 / 18.5
10.0 / 21.0
Blocks
2.6 / 5.1
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 48.9
44.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
73.8 / 70.5
65.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
38.9 / 37.2
29.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.9 / 10.0
13.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 15.6
13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
BGSU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
BGSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UVU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.8
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
UVU
BGSU
UVU
ML
66%
21-11
56%
18-14
56%
18-14
72%
23-9
ATS
72%
23-9
53%
17-15
56%
18-14
74%
25-9
TTL
53%
17-15
44%
14-18
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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