BAYLOR
BEARSBAY
6-1 | Road
71
MEMPHIS
TIGERSMEM
3-4 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
TIGERS
0%
BEARS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
BAY By 1-7 points
13.7%
BAY By 8-14 points
4.8%
MEM By 1-7 points
25.3%
MEM By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Baylor
66
BAYLOR
Memphis
74
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Baylor
78
BAYLOR
Memphis
72
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-3)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Bears (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
BAY @ MEM
71 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+155.9% more
Memphis: 5.4
vs
Baylor: 2.1
Turnovers (L5)
+31.3% more
Memphis: 14.1
vs
Baylor: 10.8
Steals (L5)
+14.6% more
Memphis: 7.9
vs
Baylor: 6.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Memphis: 35.0%
vs
Baylor: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAY Score
66.0
71
MEM Score
74.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 33.0
19.0 / 36.0
Assists
15.8 / 14.7
12.0 / 12.0
Blocks
5.4 / 2.1
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 51.2
41.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
71.0 / 77.1
76.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
38.4 / 39.0
43.0 / 44.0
Steals
7.9 / 6.9
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 10.8
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
MEM
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
MEM
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +3.0
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
BAY
MEM
BAY
ML
62%
20-12
58%
19-14
68%
21-10
53%
17-15
ATS
62%
20-12
58%
19-14
68%
21-10
53%
17-15
TTL
66%
21-11
45%
15-18
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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