MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
14-9-3 | Road
2
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
13-11-3 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jakub Dobes
#75 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Troy Stecher
#28 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes | None-None | 0.93 | 0.957 | -- |
| Troy Stecher | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.93
GAA
--
0.957
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
CANADIENS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
MTL By 1 goal
12.1%
MTL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TOR By 1 goal
19.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Montreal
3
MONTREAL
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 29, 2026
MTL @ TOR
3 - 2
Mar 10, 2026
TOR @ MTL
1 - 3
Dec 6, 2025
MTL @ TOR
2 - 1
Nov 22, 2025
TOR @ MTL
2 - 5
Oct 8, 2025
MTL @ TOR
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.1%
Toronto: 60.4%
vs
Montreal: 51.2%
Power Play % (L5)
+54.4%
Montreal: 61.2%
vs
Toronto: 6.8%
Hits (L5)
+16.7% more
Montreal: 26.0
vs
Toronto: 21.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTL Score
3.0
2
TOR Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
19.1 / 18.1
8.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
60.4 / 51.2
58.1 / 41.9
Hits
21.6 / 26.0
28.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
6.8 / 61.2
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
25.6 / 25.3
23.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 5.0
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MTL
TOR
MTL
ML
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
100%
4-0
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
Contextual Game News
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