ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
7-2 | Road
75
TENNESSEE
VOLUNTEERSTENN
7-3 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
VOLUNTEERS
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
VOLUNTEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILL -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
ILL By 1-7 points
0.1%
ILL By 8-14 points
0.5%
TENN By 1-7 points
0.0%
TENN By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois
87
ILLINOIS
Tennessee
47
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
Illinois
72
ILLINOIS
Tennessee
76
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Fighting Illini
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Volunteers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Fighting Illini (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim
Volunteers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
ILL @ TENN
75 - 62
Dec 14, 2024
TENN @ ILL
66 - 64
Dec 9, 2023
ILL @ TENN
79 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+40.2% more
Illinois: 5.3
vs
Tennessee: 3.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.7%
Illinois: 82.8%
vs
Tennessee: 69.1%
Steals (L5)
+111.2% more
Tennessee: 8.3
vs
Illinois: 3.9
Assists (L5)
+21.7% more
Tennessee: 16.4
vs
Illinois: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILL Score
87.0
75
TENN Score
47.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 27.5
30.0 / 39.0
Assists
16.4 / 13.5
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.2 / 5.3
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 44.4
37.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
69.1 / 82.8
44.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
38.2 / 41.2
46.0 / 31.0
Steals
8.3 / 3.9
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 10.4
13.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
TENN
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
TENN
17-19-1
(47.2%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
ILL
TENN
ILL
ML
46%
17-20
65%
24-13
64%
21-12
57%
20-15
ATS
54%
20-17
70%
26-11
64%
21-12
57%
20-15
TTL
76%
28-9
57%
21-16
100%
33-0
100%
35-0
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