Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Wildcats AUB @ ARIZ

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

7-3  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 10:00 PM ET
McKale Memorial Center
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

8-0  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
TIGERS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Auburn)
TigersAUB (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

72.6%

Wildcats Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AUB -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

AUB By 1-7 points

26.8%

AUB By 8-14 points

24.3%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

16.9%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
75
AUBURN
69
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
74
AUBURN
78
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 AUB @ ARIZ 68 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +21.0% more
Auburn: 5.7 vs Arizona: 4.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.5%
Auburn: 43.0% vs Arizona: 30.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +10.8%
Auburn: 77.7% vs Arizona: 66.9%
Assists (L5) +56.3% more
Arizona: 19.3 vs Auburn: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 75.0 68
ARIZ Score 69.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.5 / 43.0 40.0 / 24.0
Assists 19.3 / 12.3 23.0 / 7.0
Blocks 4.5 / 5.7 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.8 / 51.8 61.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 66.9 / 77.7 75.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 35.6 40.0 / 34.0
Steals 8.8 / 6.8 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 13.0 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
AUB
ARIZ
AUB
ML
67% 26-13
58% 22-16
68% 23-11
75% 24-8
ATS
74% 29-10
74% 28-10
68% 23-11
75% 24-8
TTL
56% 22-17
53% 20-18
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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