SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
15-6 | Road
117
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
13-10 | Home
130
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
SPURS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
1.4%
SA By 8-14 points
5.8%
CLE By 1-7 points
0.1%
CLE By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
125
SAN ANTONIO
Cleveland
96
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
San Antonio
110
SAN ANTONIO
Cleveland
115
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u239.5
Loss
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim
u239.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 29, 2025
CLE @ SA
113 - 101
Dec 5, 2025
SA @ CLE
117 - 130
Apr 4, 2025
CLE @ SA
114 - 113
Mar 27, 2025
SA @ CLE
116 - 124
Feb 3, 2024
CLE @ SA
117 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+16.3% more
San Antonio: 12.8
vs
Cleveland: 10.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
San Antonio: 35.9%
vs
Cleveland: 32.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
San Antonio: 47.1%
vs
Cleveland: 45.2%
Blocks (L5)
+49.5% more
Cleveland: 7.2
vs
San Antonio: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
125.0
117
CLE Score
96.0
130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 35.9
31.0 / 35.0
Assists
25.9 / 22.9
32.0 / 28.0
Blocks
7.2 / 4.8
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 47.1
58.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
80.2 / 78.9
76.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
45.1 / 44.3
48.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.2 / 7.4
10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 12.8
15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
SA
CLE
SA
ML
60%
69-46
60%
111-73
56%
55-44
58%
61-44
ATS
67%
75-37-3
58%
107-76-1
56%
55-44
58%
61-44
TTL
59%
68-47
74%
134-47-3
100%
99-0
100%
105-0
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