CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
5-5 | Road
94
CAL STATE FULLERTON
TITANSCSUF
3-6 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
0%
TITANS
100%
MUSTANGS
--
TITANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-59.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +59.0 points (Cal Poly)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CP -59.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)
CP By 1-7 points
0.0%
CP By 8-14 points
0.0%
CSUF By 1-7 points
0.0%
CSUF By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal Poly
118
CAL POLY
Cal State Fullerton
59
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Simulated Score
Cal Poly
64
CAL POLY
Cal State Fullerton
71
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Titans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -59.0
D
Sim
Titans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u177.5
Loss
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim
u177.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
CSUF @ CP
93 - 78
Dec 4, 2025
CP @ CSUF
94 - 91
Mar 6, 2025
CSUF @ CP
61 - 100
Feb 13, 2025
CP @ CSUF
98 - 83
Feb 22, 2024
CP @ CSUF
50 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+50.9% more
Cal Poly: 18.4
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 9.1
Steals (L5)
+21.1% more
Cal Poly: 7.6
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 6.0
Blocks (L5)
+12.6% more
Cal Poly: 2.5
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 2.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.8%
Cal Poly: 80.6%
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 69.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CP Score
118.0
94
CSUF Score
59.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.9 / 36.9
39.0 / 49.0
Assists
14.8 / 14.1
12.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.2 / 2.5
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 44.6
47.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
69.8 / 80.6
69.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
36.7 / 40.0
36.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.0 / 7.6
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 18.4
17.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
CSUF
Advantage
18-16-0
(52.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
CSUF
Advantage
19-11-2
(63.3%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
CSUF
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUF
CP
CSUF
CP
ML
68%
23-11
58%
19-14
76%
26-8
58%
19-14
ATS
68%
23-11
64%
21-12
76%
26-8
58%
19-14
TTL
59%
20-14
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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