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MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

13-8  |  Road

125
FINAL
Thu, Dec 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

3-19  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

94.5%

Pelicans Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

13.7%

MIN By 8-14 points

24.3%

NO By 1-7 points

4.0%

NO By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
126
MINNESOTA
110
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
112
MINNESOTA
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+12) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o233.5 Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 NO @ MIN 126 - 132
Feb 6, 2026 NO @ MIN 119 - 115
Dec 4, 2025 MIN @ NO 125 - 116
Dec 2, 2025 MIN @ NO 149 - 142
Mar 21, 2025 NO @ MIN 93 - 134
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +18.5% more
Minnesota: 3.3 vs New Orleans: 2.7
Assists (L5) +16.1% more
Minnesota: 29.0 vs New Orleans: 24.4
Steals (L5) +8.2% more
New Orleans: 7.1 vs Minnesota: 6.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
New Orleans: 44.0% vs Minnesota: 40.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 126.0 125
NO Score 110.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.0 / 40.7 28.0 / 39.0
Assists 24.4 / 29.0 29.0 / 30.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.3 2.0 / 10.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 49.2 45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 81.3 / 78.8 88.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 43.6 / 41.0 43.0 / 49.0
Steals 7.1 / 6.6 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 12.9 12.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
MIN
NO
MIN
ML
62% 98-61
54% 63-53
58% 48-35
54% 50-43
ATS
68% 107-51-1
58% 67-49
58% 48-35
54% 50-43
TTL
75% 119-40
63% 72-43-1
100% 83-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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