TENNESSEE STATE
TIGERSTNST
5-3 | Road
53
ALABAMA A&M
BULLDOGSAAMU
3-3 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
BULLDOGS
100%
TIGERS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
113.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Tennessee State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TNST -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)
TNST By 1-7 points
24.3%
TNST By 8-14 points
26.8%
AAMU By 1-7 points
12.2%
AAMU By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Tennessee State
61
TENNESSEE STATE
Alabama A&M
52
ALABAMA A&M
Simulated Score
Tennessee State
75
TENNESSEE STATE
Alabama A&M
71
ALABAMA A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Tigers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 113.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
TNST @ AAMU
53 - 80
Nov 16, 2024
AAMU @ TNST
71 - 81
Nov 29, 2023
TNST @ AAMU
83 - 85
Nov 14, 2022
AAMU @ TNST
76 - 87
Nov 9, 2021
TNST @ AAMU
73 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+35.1% more
Tennessee State: 12.2
vs
Alabama A&M: 7.9
Steals (L5)
+33.9% more
Tennessee State: 10.3
vs
Alabama A&M: 6.8
Rebounding (L5)
+18.0% more
Tennessee State: 38.9
vs
Alabama A&M: 31.9
Turnovers (L5)
+12.5% more
Tennessee State: 13.4
vs
Alabama A&M: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TNST Score
61.0
53
AAMU Score
52.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.7 / 23.8
47.0 / 17.0
Assists
7.9 / 12.2
11.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.3 / 2.2
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
37.6 / 44.9
51.0 / 29.0
Free Throw %
70.8 / 82.1
74.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
31.9 / 38.9
40.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.8 / 10.3
6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 13.4
15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
AAMU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST
Advantage
18-11-1
(62.1%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
AAMU
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.3
AAMU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AAMU
TNST
AAMU
TNST
ML
55%
16-13
52%
16-15
67%
16-8
63%
17-10
ATS
55%
16-13
68%
21-10
67%
16-8
64%
18-10
TTL
66%
19-10
52%
16-15
100%
24-0
100%
28-0
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