Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Buccaneers NO @ TB

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

2-10  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

7-5  |  Home

20
Key Game
Charlie Smyth
KEY GAME

Charlie Smyth

#39 | Place kicker
@
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
Player
Charlie Smyth None-None
Riley Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
0%
📊
BUCCANEERS
100%
SAINTS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (New Orleans)
SaintsNO (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

76.2%

Buccaneers Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NO -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NO By 1-6 points

15.3%

NO By 7-13 points

19.7%

TB By 1-6 points

10.7%

TB By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
10
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
24
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Saints Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Saints (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 30.0
D
Sim u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 NO @ TB 24 - 20
Oct 26, 2025 TB @ NO 23 - 3
Jan 5, 2025 NO @ TB 19 - 27
Oct 13, 2024 TB @ NO 51 - 27
Dec 31, 2023 NO @ TB 23 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +52.6% more
New Orleans: 2.0 vs Tampa Bay: 0.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +22.5% more
New Orleans: 216.5 vs Tampa Bay: 167.7
First Downs (L5) +10.8% more
New Orleans: 18.3 vs Tampa Bay: 16.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.2% more
Tampa Bay: 116.8 vs New Orleans: 82.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 20.0 24
TB Score 10.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.3 / 18.3 19.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 167.7 / 216.5 122.0 / 121.0
Rushing Yards 116.8 / 82.1 179.0 / 139.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.23 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 284.5 / 298.5 301.0 / 260.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 2.0 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 4.6 4.4 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
TB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NO
TB
NO
ML
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2-1
0% 0-4
100% 4-0-1
50% 2-2
TTL
20% 1-4
0% 0-4
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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