PITTSBURGH
STEELERSPIT
6-6 | Road
27
BALTIMORE
RAVENSBAL
6-6 | Home
22
Key Game
KEY GAME
Chris Boswell
#9 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Tyler Loop
#33 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Chris Boswell | None-None |
| Tyler Loop | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
100%
RAVENS
0%
STEELERS
--
RAVENS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAL -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
PIT By 1-6 points
3.8%
PIT By 7-13 points
1.8%
BAL By 1-6 points
7.9%
BAL By 7-13 points
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
7
PITTSBURGH
Baltimore
28
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
21
PITTSBURGH
Baltimore
24
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Ravens
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ravens
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Ravens (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Ravens (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u43.0
Loss
Proj Total: 35.0
D
Sim
u43.0
Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 4, 2026
BAL @ PIT
24 - 26
Dec 7, 2025
PIT @ BAL
27 - 22
Jan 11, 2025
PIT @ BAL
14 - 28
Dec 21, 2024
PIT @ BAL
17 - 34
Nov 17, 2024
BAL @ PIT
16 - 18
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+43.7% more
Baltimore: 2.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.6
Rushing Yards (L5)
+33.6% more
Baltimore: 134.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 100.7
Total Yards (L5)
+21.4% more
Baltimore: 317.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 261.1
Yards Per Play (L5)
+16.0% more
Baltimore: 5.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
7.0
27
BAL Score
28.0
22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
17.5 / 16.0
22.0 / 13.0
Net Passing Yards
182.4 / 160.4
203.0 / 284.0
Rushing Yards
134.6 / 100.7
217.0 / 34.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.4
0.39 / 0.43
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.4
0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards
317.0 / 261.1
420.0 / 318.0
Turnovers
2.3 / 1.6
1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play
5.4 / 4.7
5.5 / 6.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
BAL
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
BAL
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.4
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
PIT
BAL
PIT
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2-1
50%
2-2
100%
3-0-1
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
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