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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

16-9-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 10:00 PM ET
SAP Center at San Jose
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

13-11-3  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Charlie Lindgren
GOALTENDER

Charlie Lindgren

#79 | Goaltender
@
Alex Nedeljkovic
GOALTENDER

Alex Nedeljkovic

#33 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Charlie Lindgren None-None 1.00 0.958 --
Alex Nedeljkovic None-None 4.22 0.842 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 4.22
0.958 Ldr Save % 0.842
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
📊
SHARKS
100%
CAPITALS --
SHARKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
CapitalsWSH (-3.5) 0 SharksSJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

93.3%

Sharks Cover

6.7%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1 goal

12.1%

WSH By 2-3 goals

37.2%

SJ By 1 goal

2.8%

SJ By 2-3 goals

1.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4
WASHINGTON
1
SAN JOSE
Simulated Score
2
WASHINGTON
4
SAN JOSE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Capitals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sharks Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Capitals (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim Sharks (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 15, 2026 SJ @ WSH 3 - 2
Dec 3, 2025 WSH @ SJ 7 - 1
Mar 15, 2025 WSH @ SJ 5 - 1
Dec 3, 2024 SJ @ WSH 2 - 1
Nov 27, 2023 WSH @ SJ 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +11.2% more
Washington: 16.6 vs San Jose: 14.8
Power Play % (L5) +4.3%
Washington: 31.6% vs San Jose: 27.2%
Faceoff % (L5) +2.2%
Washington: 47.0% vs San Jose: 44.8%
Takeaways (L5) +20.5% more
San Jose: 5.1 vs Washington: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.0 7
SJ Score 1.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.8 / 16.6 6.0 / 16.0
Faceoff % 44.8 / 47.0 44.0 / 56.0
Hits 20.6 / 19.1 19.0 / 10.0
Power Play % 27.2 / 31.6 20.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 25.7 / 27.1 24.0 / 31.0
Takeaways 5.1 / 4.3 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
54%MONEY46%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJ
WSH
SJ
WSH
ML
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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