Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Falcons PAC @ AF

PACIFIC

TIGERSPAC

7-2  |  Road

80
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Clune Arena
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-7  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
TIGERS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
PACIFIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Pacific)
TigersPAC (-3.5) 0 FalconsAF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

94.5%

Falcons Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PAC -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PAC)

PAC By 1-7 points

13.7%

PAC By 8-14 points

24.3%

AF By 1-7 points

4.0%

AF By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
79
PACIFIC
63
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
63
PACIFIC
67
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 PAC @ AF 80 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +31.1% more
Pacific: 42.8 vs Air Force: 29.5
Turnovers (L5) +10.7% more
Pacific: 14.1 vs Air Force: 12.5
Assists (L5) +10.1% more
Pacific: 13.6 vs Air Force: 12.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.5%
Pacific: 33.2% vs Air Force: 23.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PAC Score 79.0 80
AF Score 63.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 23.6 / 33.2 32.0 / 27.0
Assists 12.2 / 13.6 11.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.0 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 46.2 47.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 76.1 59.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 29.5 / 42.8 22.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.4 / 6.0 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 14.1 11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PAC Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PAC Advantage
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5% Total +/-: -2.0
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AF
PAC
AF
PAC
ML
81% 26-6
45% 15-18
62% 20-12
80% 24-6
ATS
69% 22-10
55% 18-15
62% 20-12
80% 24-6
TTL
69% 22-10
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti Denies Any Expansion Talks Ami…
saturdaydownsouth 6 hours, 2 minutes ago
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
si 6 hours, 5 minutes ago
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 12 hours, 38 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 18 hours, 46 minutes ago
Clemson's Brad Brownell Reveals New Identity, Injury Updates at …
si 1 day ago