TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
6-5 | Road
72
RICE
OWLSRICE
4-6 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
OWLS
100%
BOBCATS
--
OWLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Texas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TXST -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)
TXST By 1-7 points
15.3%
TXST By 8-14 points
25.3%
RICE By 1-7 points
4.8%
RICE By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas State
81
TEXAS STATE
Rice
66
RICE
Simulated Score
Texas State
68
TEXAS STATE
Rice
72
RICE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Owls
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Owls (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
TXST @ RICE
72 - 77
Dec 8, 2024
RICE @ TXST
66 - 75
Dec 4, 2022
RICE @ TXST
83 - 71
Nov 30, 2021
TXST @ RICE
80 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+14.2% more
Texas State: 9.0
vs
Rice: 7.7
Assists (L5)
+9.0% more
Texas State: 12.9
vs
Rice: 11.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Texas State: 45.8%
vs
Rice: 43.4%
Blocks (L5)
+11.5% more
Rice: 5.0
vs
Texas State: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TXST Score
81.0
72
RICE Score
66.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.0 / 31.5
27.0 / 31.0
Assists
11.7 / 12.9
9.0 / 10.0
Blocks
5.0 / 4.4
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 45.8
44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 71.8
76.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
37.9 / 40.4
39.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.7 / 9.0
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 14.1
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
RICE
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
RICE
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
RICE
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
TXST
RICE
TXST
ML
53%
16-14
42%
13-18
53%
16-14
83%
25-5
ATS
60%
18-12
48%
15-16
53%
16-14
84%
26-5
TTL
77%
23-7
65%
20-11
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
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