Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wolverines @ Aztecs UVU @ SDSU

UTAH VALLEY

WOLVERINESUVU

5-2  |  Road

66
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 10:00 PM ET
Viejas Arena
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

3-3  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
0%
📊
AZTECS
100%
WOLVERINES --
AZTECS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
UTAH VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Utah Valley)
WolverinesUVU (-3.5) 0 AztecsSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolverines Cover

93.3%

Aztecs Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UVU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVU)

UVU By 1-7 points

15.3%

UVU By 8-14 points

25.3%

SDSU By 1-7 points

4.8%

SDSU By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
76
UTAH VALLEY
61
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
58
UTAH VALLEY
72
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolverines Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aztecs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolverines (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Aztecs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 UVU @ SDSU 66 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.3% more
Utah Valley: 7.1 vs San Diego State: 4.2
Steals (L5) +31.6% more
Utah Valley: 10.0 vs San Diego State: 6.8
Rebounding (L5) +17.4% more
Utah Valley: 39.8 vs San Diego State: 32.9
Assists (L5) +11.3% more
Utah Valley: 19.7 vs San Diego State: 17.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVU Score 76.0 66
SDSU Score 61.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 40.5 33.0 / 37.0
Assists 17.5 / 19.7 13.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.2 / 7.1 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 52.3 45.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 79.7 / 72.2 79.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 39.8 35.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.8 / 10.0 12.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 13.8 13.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
SDSU
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
SDSU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UVU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.8
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
UVU
SDSU
UVU
ML
62% 20-12
56% 18-14
72% 23-9
72% 23-9
ATS
69% 22-10
53% 17-15
72% 23-9
74% 25-9
TTL
75% 24-8
44% 14-18
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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