Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Vikings @ Norse CLE @ NKU

CLEVELAND STATE

VIKINGSCLE

3-7  |  Road

80
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Truist Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN KENTUCKY

NORSENKU

7-2  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
0%
📊
NORSE
100%
VIKINGS --
NORSE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
VikingsCLE (-3.5) 0 NorseNKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

15.9%

Norse Cover

84.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NKU +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NKU)

CLE By 1-7 points

23.0%

CLE By 8-14 points

27.2%

NKU By 1-7 points

10.7%

NKU By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
85
CLEVELAND STATE
75
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
68
CLEVELAND STATE
73
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vikings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Norse Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Norse (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
D
Sim Norse (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 NKU @ CLE 81 - 70
Dec 3, 2025 CLE @ NKU 80 - 95
Mar 6, 2025 NKU @ CLE 63 - 68
Feb 5, 2025 CLE @ NKU 75 - 85
Jan 15, 2025 NKU @ CLE 58 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.1% more
Cleveland State: 15.3 vs Northern Kentucky: 11.0
Assists (L5) +8.3% more
Cleveland State: 15.1 vs Northern Kentucky: 13.8
Steals (L5) +42.6% more
Northern Kentucky: 9.6 vs Cleveland State: 6.7
Blocks (L5) +27.7% more
Northern Kentucky: 4.2 vs Cleveland State: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 85.0 80
NKU Score 75.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 35.2 48.0 / 56.0
Assists 13.8 / 15.1 22.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.2 / 3.3 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 44.1 56.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 64.2 93.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 35.1 29.0 / 23.0
Steals 9.6 / 6.7 12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 15.3 14.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
NKU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
NKU Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.3
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NKU
CLE
NKU
CLE
ML
53% 18-16
52% 17-16
65% 22-12
64% 21-12
ATS
56% 19-15
64% 21-12
65% 22-12
64% 21-12
TTL
68% 23-11
52% 17-16
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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