Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hoosiers @ Golden Gophers IU @ MINN

INDIANA

HOOSIERSIU

7-0  |  Road

64
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Williams Arena
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

GOLDEN GOPHERSMINN

4-4  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
HOOSIERS
0%
📊
GOLDEN GOPHERS
100%
HOOSIERS --
GOLDEN GOPHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HoosiersIU (-3.5) 0 Golden GophersMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hoosiers Cover

34.5%

Golden Gophers Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MINN +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

IU By 1-7 points

27.4%

IU By 8-14 points

21.6%

MINN By 1-7 points

20.1%

MINN By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
INDIANA
62
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
68
INDIANA
73
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hoosiers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Gophers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Gophers (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Golden Gophers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.0 Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim u144.0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 MINN @ IU 47 - 77
Dec 3, 2025 IU @ MINN 64 - 73
Dec 9, 2024 MINN @ IU 67 - 82
Mar 6, 2024 IU @ MINN 70 - 58
Jan 12, 2024 MINN @ IU 62 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +33.9% more
Indiana: 4.0 vs Minnesota: 2.6
Assists (L5) +24.0% more
Indiana: 20.4 vs Minnesota: 15.5
Steals (L5) +20.5% more
Indiana: 7.1 vs Minnesota: 5.6
Rebounding (L5) +17.6% more
Indiana: 39.9 vs Minnesota: 32.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IU Score 66.0 64
MINN Score 62.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 35.0 38.0 / 30.0
Assists 15.5 / 20.4 16.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.6 / 4.0 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 48.8 49.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 68.0 / 76.3 70.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 39.9 40.0 / 25.0
Steals 5.6 / 7.1 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 10.0 16.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
MINN
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
MINN
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.7
MINN
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
IU
MINN
IU
ML
48% 16-17
66% 21-11
71% 22-9
71% 22-9
ATS
55% 18-15
53% 17-15
71% 22-9
71% 22-9
TTL
52% 17-16
56% 18-14
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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