LOUISVILLE
CARDINALSLOU
7-1 | Road
80
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
6-2 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
RAZORBACKS
0%
CARDINALS
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Arkansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARK -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)
LOU By 1-7 points
0.3%
LOU By 8-14 points
0.0%
ARK By 1-7 points
2.2%
ARK By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Louisville
62
LOUISVILLE
Arkansas
89
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Louisville
70
LOUISVILLE
Arkansas
76
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Razorbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Razorbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Razorbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Razorbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
LOU @ ARK
80 - 89
Nov 21, 2022
LOU @ ARK
54 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+14.9% more
Arkansas: 4.9
vs
Louisville: 4.3
Steals (L5)
+11.6% more
Arkansas: 8.5
vs
Louisville: 7.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.0%
Arkansas: 81.2%
vs
Louisville: 78.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Arkansas: 48.7%
vs
Louisville: 47.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LOU Score
62.0
80
ARK Score
89.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.1 / 38.5
33.0 / 22.0
Assists
17.4 / 19.9
14.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.9 / 4.3
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 47.0
42.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
81.2 / 78.1
77.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
35.0 / 48.0
46.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.5 / 7.6
5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 9.7
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
17-18-0
(48.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.6
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
LOU
ARK
LOU
ML
68%
25-12
63%
22-13
81%
25-6
71%
24-10
ATS
70%
26-11
71%
25-10
81%
25-6
71%
24-10
TTL
57%
21-16
63%
22-13
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
Contextual Game News
Luke Loucks Opens Up on Recruiting, Offensive Rebounding, and Ro…
Tyrese Haliburton Set to Make Emotional Return to Iowa State as …
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
Indiana Hoosiers Fans Invade Rutgers Homecoming as Hoosiers Roll…
Houston Cougars Erase 17-Point Deficit to Stun UCF in Space Game