Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Pelicans MIN @ NO

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

12-8  |  Road

149
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

3-18  |  Home

142
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

94.5%

Pelicans Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

13.7%

MIN By 8-14 points

24.3%

NO By 1-7 points

4.0%

NO By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
126
MINNESOTA
110
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
109
MINNESOTA
112
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o231.0 Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim u231.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 NO @ MIN 126 - 132
Feb 6, 2026 NO @ MIN 119 - 115
Dec 4, 2025 MIN @ NO 125 - 116
Dec 2, 2025 MIN @ NO 149 - 142
Mar 21, 2025 NO @ MIN 93 - 134
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.0% more
Minnesota: 29.0 vs New Orleans: 23.5
Turnovers (L5) +16.6% more
Minnesota: 14.8 vs New Orleans: 12.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Minnesota: 41.5% vs New Orleans: 37.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Minnesota: 48.8% vs New Orleans: 46.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 126.0 149
NO Score 110.0 142
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 41.5 57.0 / 39.0
Assists 23.5 / 29.0 26.0 / 29.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.9 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 48.8 55.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 78.9 / 75.3 86.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 44.4 / 41.0 42.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.2 / 6.4 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 14.8 13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
MIN
NO
MIN
ML
62% 98-61
54% 63-53
58% 48-35
54% 50-43
ATS
68% 107-51-1
58% 67-49
58% 48-35
54% 50-43
TTL
75% 119-40
63% 72-43-1
100% 83-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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