MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
9-12 | Road
119
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
13-6 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
SPURS
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
MEM By 1-7 points
4.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
0.8%
SA By 1-7 points
13.7%
SA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
109
MEMPHIS
San Antonio
125
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Memphis
109
MEMPHIS
San Antonio
112
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.5
Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
SA @ MEM
123 - 98
Jan 6, 2026
SA @ MEM
105 - 106
Dec 2, 2025
MEM @ SA
119 - 126
Nov 18, 2025
MEM @ SA
101 - 111
Mar 1, 2025
SA @ MEM
130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+63.4% more
San Antonio: 9.5
vs
Memphis: 5.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.1%
San Antonio: 85.8%
vs
Memphis: 77.7%
Blocks (L5)
+41.8% more
Memphis: 6.1
vs
San Antonio: 3.5
Turnovers (L5)
+34.2% more
Memphis: 16.9
vs
San Antonio: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
109.0
119
SA Score
125.0
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 38.2
46.0 / 35.0
Assists
22.5 / 29.5
28.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.5 / 6.1
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 48.0
46.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
85.8 / 77.7
77.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
40.6 / 50.8
40.0 / 50.0
Steals
9.5 / 5.8
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 16.9
7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
MEM
SA
MEM
ML
60%
111-73
57%
59-44
58%
61-44
50%
41-41
ATS
58%
107-76-1
63%
65-38
58%
61-44
50%
41-41
TTL
74%
134-47-3
70%
71-31-1
100%
105-0
100%
82-0
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