Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Warriors OKC @ GS

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

20-1  |  Road

124
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 11:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

11-10  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
THUNDER --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
251.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Golden State)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

46.0%

Warriors Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

OKC By 1-7 points

24.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

13.7%

GS By 1-7 points

26.2%

GS By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
125
OKLAHOMA CITY
126
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o223.5 Win
Proj Total: 251.0
D
Sim u223.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 GS @ OKC 97 - 104
Jan 2, 2026 OKC @ GS 131 - 94
Dec 2, 2025 OKC @ GS 124 - 112
Nov 11, 2025 GS @ OKC 102 - 126
Jan 29, 2025 OKC @ GS 109 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.7% more
Golden State: 13.6 vs Oklahoma City: 11.8
Blocks (L5) +31.7% more
Oklahoma City: 6.1 vs Golden State: 4.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.6%
Oklahoma City: 38.6% vs Golden State: 31.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Oklahoma City: 49.8% vs Golden State: 43.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 125.0 124
GS Score 126.0 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 38.6 43.0 / 47.0
Assists 27.9 / 26.8 30.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.1 / 6.1 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 49.8 45.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 80.7 / 80.3 80.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 46.0 / 42.6 43.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.5 / 8.8 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 11.8 16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
OKC
GS
OKC
ML
55% 95-79
70% 80-34
58% 49-35
48% 46-49
ATS
58% 101-73
73% 83-30-1
58% 49-35
48% 46-49
TTL
77% 134-40
67% 76-38
100% 84-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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