Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Racers MORE @ MUR

MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

3-5  |  Road

52
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 8:00 PM ET
CFSB Center
View Odds Details →

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

5-3  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
RACERS
0%
EAGLES --
RACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Murray State)
EaglesMORE (-3.5) 0 RacersMUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

5.5%

Racers Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MUR -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

MORE By 1-7 points

4.0%

MORE By 8-14 points

0.8%

MUR By 1-7 points

13.7%

MUR By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
54
MOREHEAD STATE
70
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
68
MOREHEAD STATE
72
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Racers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Racers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Racers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Racers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 MORE @ MUR 52 - 84
Mar 5, 2022 MORE @ MUR 67 - 71
Feb 12, 2022 MUR @ MORE 57 - 53
Jan 29, 2022 MORE @ MUR 66 - 77
Feb 4, 2021 MUR @ MORE 56 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +34.1% more
Murray State: 3.3 vs Morehead State: 2.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Murray State: 36.7% vs Morehead State: 32.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Murray State: 46.7% vs Morehead State: 44.7%
Steals (L5) +21.2% more
Morehead State: 6.8 vs Murray State: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORE Score 54.0 52
MUR Score 70.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 32.8 32.0 / 25.0
Assists 14.3 / 13.6 16.0 / 6.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.5 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 44.7 43.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 72.1 69.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 39.5 / 42.4 50.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.4 / 6.8 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 15.9 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORE
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
MUR
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORE Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
MORE
MUR
MORE
ML
58% 19-14
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
68% 21-10
ATS
52% 17-16
59% 19-13
61% 20-13
68% 21-10
TTL
70% 23-10
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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