Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Indiana @ Ohio State IU @ OSU

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

12-0  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

12-0  |  Home

10
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Mitch McCarthy

#44 | Punter
@
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
Player
Mitch McCarthy None-None
Joe McGuire None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
INDIANA
0%
📊
OHIO STATE
100%
INDIANA --
OHIO STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Indiana)
IndianaIU (-3.5) 0 Ohio StateOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Indiana Cover

69.1%

Ohio State Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

IU By 1-6 points

16.5%

IU By 7-13 points

19.3%

OSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

OSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31
INDIANA
24
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
10
INDIANA
42
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Ohio State Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim Ohio State (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 IU @ OSU 13 - 10
Nov 23, 2024 IU @ OSU 15 - 38
Sep 2, 2023 OSU @ IU 23 - 3
Nov 12, 2022 IU @ OSU 14 - 56
Oct 23, 2021 OSU @ IU 54 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.1% more
Indiana: 228.0 vs Ohio State: 195.9
Turnovers (L5) +32.0% more
Ohio State: 0.8 vs Indiana: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +9.2% more
Ohio State: 24.3 vs Indiana: 22.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IU Score 31.0 13
OSU Score 24.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.3 / 22.3 17.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 195.9 / 228.0 58.0 / 118.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 434.9 / 464.5 322.0 / 340.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
OSU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.7
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
IU
OSU
IU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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