Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Texas @ Tulane UNT @ TULN

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

11-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Fri, Dec 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Yulman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULANE

TULANETULN

10-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
AJ Brown
KEY GAME

AJ Brown

#96 | Defensive Lineman
@
Shaun Nicholas
KEY GAME

Shaun Nicholas

#0 | Cornerback
Player
AJ Brown None-None
Shaun Nicholas None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH TEXAS
0%
📊
TULANE
100%
NORTH TEXAS --
TULANE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (North Texas)
North TexasUNT (-3.5) 0 TulaneTULN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Texas Cover

82.3%

Tulane Cover

17.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNT -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

UNT By 1-6 points

13.5%

UNT By 7-13 points

19.3%

TULN By 1-6 points

8.6%

TULN By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
34
NORTH TEXAS
21
TULANE
Simulated Score
20
NORTH TEXAS
31
TULANE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI North Texas Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Tulane Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI North Texas (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
B
Sim Tulane (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 5, 2025 UNT @ TULN 21 - 34
Oct 26, 2024 TULN @ UNT 45 - 37
Oct 21, 2023 UNT @ TULN 28 - 35
Oct 5, 2013 UNT @ TULN 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +25.0% more
North Texas: 574.8 vs Tulane: 431.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.0% more
North Texas: 202.9 vs Tulane: 154.2
First Downs (L5) +11.0% more
North Texas: 25.3 vs Tulane: 22.5
Turnovers (L5) +55.0% more
Tulane: 1.6 vs North Texas: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 34.0 21
TULN Score 21.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.5 / 25.3 22.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 154.2 / 202.9 199.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 431.4 / 574.8 344.0 / 415.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
TULN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
TULN
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
TULN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TULN
UNT
TULN
UNT
ML
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
TTL
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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