MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
9-12 | Road
126
WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
2-16 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
WIZARDS
100%
BUCKS
--
WIZARDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WSH +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
MIL By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIL By 8-14 points
23.0%
WSH By 1-7 points
18.6%
WSH By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
110
MILWAUKEE
Washington
105
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
108
MILWAUKEE
Washington
121
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wizards
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wizards (+10)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Wizards (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u231.5
Loss
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim
u231.5
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
MIL @ WSH
99 - 109
Dec 31, 2025
WSH @ MIL
114 - 113
Dec 1, 2025
MIL @ WSH
126 - 129
Oct 22, 2025
WSH @ MIL
120 - 133
Feb 21, 2025
MIL @ WSH
104 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+15.3% more
Milwaukee: 9.9
vs
Washington: 8.4
Assists (L5)
+11.3% more
Milwaukee: 28.0
vs
Washington: 24.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
Milwaukee: 40.5%
vs
Washington: 35.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Milwaukee: 49.1%
vs
Washington: 46.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
110.0
126
WSH Score
105.0
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 40.5
36.0 / 55.0
Assists
24.8 / 28.0
29.0 / 29.0
Blocks
6.1 / 3.0
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 49.1
52.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
71.3 / 71.0
67.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
40.8 / 40.3
41.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.4 / 9.9
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.6 / 14.4
10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIL
WSH
MIL
ML
70%
112-49
64%
61-35
47%
39-44
60%
49-32
ATS
69%
111-49-1
68%
65-31
47%
39-44
60%
49-32
TTL
74%
119-41-1
55%
53-43
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
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