PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
12-7-5 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
14-7-3 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Dan Vladar
#80 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Dan Vladar | None-None | 5.00 | 0.815 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
5.00
--
Save %
0.815
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
FLYERS
0%
PENGUINS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PIT By 1 goal
12.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
PHI By 1 goal
19.7%
PHI By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flyers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
7 - 0
Apr 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 1
Apr 27, 2026
PHI @ PIT
2 - 3
Apr 25, 2026
PIT @ PHI
4 - 2
Apr 22, 2026
PIT @ PHI
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+28.9% more
Philadelphia: 20.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 15.9
Blocked Shots (L5)
+27.3% more
Philadelphia: 17.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 13.8
Takeaways (L5)
+23.5% more
Philadelphia: 4.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.8
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.5% more
Pittsburgh: 27.6
vs
Philadelphia: 25.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.0
5
PHI Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.5 / 13.8
13.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
46.2 / 49.9
49.1 / 50.9
Hits
20.5 / 15.9
27.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
11.9 / 15.8
14.3 / 75.0
Shots on Goal
25.0 / 27.6
29.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
4.7 / 3.8
2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
PIT
PHI
PIT
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
ATS
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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