Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warriors @ Explorers MRMK @ LAS

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

2-5  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 12:00 PM ET
The Palestra
View Odds Details →

LA SALLE

EXPLORERSLAS

3-4  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
EXPLORERS
100%
WARRIORS --
EXPLORERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
92.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Merrimack)
WarriorsMRMK (-3.5) 0 ExplorersLAS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

98.6%

Explorers Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRMK -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)

MRMK By 1-7 points

5.8%

MRMK By 8-14 points

15.3%

LAS By 1-7 points

1.1%

LAS By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
57
MERRIMACK
35
LA SALLE
Simulated Score
68
MERRIMACK
72
LA SALLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Explorers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Explorers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 92.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 MRMK @ LAS 66 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +39.7% more
Merrimack: 4.3 vs La Salle: 2.6
Steals (L5) +18.7% more
Merrimack: 8.0 vs La Salle: 6.5
Free Throw % (L5) +10.3%
Merrimack: 79.3% vs La Salle: 69.0%
Rebounding (L5) +35.3% more
La Salle: 38.9 vs Merrimack: 28.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 57.0 66
LAS Score 35.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.2 / 25.7 27.0 / 36.0
Assists 15.4 / 11.8 16.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.6 / 4.3 4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 35.6 40.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 79.3 78.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 38.9 / 28.8 40.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.5 / 8.0 6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 9.2 19.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
LAS
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
LAS
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
LAS
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAS
MRMK
LAS
MRMK
ML
69% 22-10
47% 16-18
69% 22-10
65% 22-12
ATS
78% 25-7
53% 18-16
69% 22-10
65% 22-12
TTL
66% 21-11
62% 21-13
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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