Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Lakers NO @ LAL

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

3-17  |  Road

121
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 9:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

14-4  |  Home

133
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
PELICANS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

46.0%

Lakers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

NO By 1-7 points

24.3%

NO By 8-14 points

13.7%

LAL By 1-7 points

26.2%

LAL By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
124
NEW ORLEANS
125
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
110
NEW ORLEANS
115
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o228.0 Win
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim u228.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 NO @ LAL 101 - 110
Jan 6, 2026 LAL @ NO 111 - 103
Nov 30, 2025 NO @ LAL 121 - 133
Nov 14, 2025 LAL @ NO 118 - 104
Apr 4, 2025 NO @ LAL 108 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +11.5% more
Los Angeles: 26.5 vs New Orleans: 23.8
Field Goal % (L5) +10.1%
Los Angeles: 54.4% vs New Orleans: 44.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.8%
Los Angeles: 41.0% vs New Orleans: 31.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.4%
Los Angeles: 80.8% vs New Orleans: 78.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 124.0 121
LAL Score 125.0 133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.0 / 31.2 37.0 / 50.0
Assists 26.5 / 23.8 26.0 / 23.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.8 10.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 54.4 / 44.2 48.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 80.8 / 78.4 87.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 38.9 / 46.6 46.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.5 / 9.3 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 14.6 9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
NO
LAL
NO
ML
61% 68-43
62% 98-61
54% 49-42
58% 48-35
ATS
61% 67-43-1
68% 107-51-1
54% 49-42
58% 48-35
TTL
61% 66-43-2
75% 119-40
100% 91-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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