SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
13-5 | Road
112
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
11-8 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
SPURS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
16.9%
SA By 8-14 points
26.2%
MIN By 1-7 points
5.8%
MIN By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
110
SAN ANTONIO
Minnesota
96
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Minnesota
112
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-4)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Spurs (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u234.0
Loss
Proj Total: 206.0
D
Sim
u234.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 15, 2026
SA @ MIN
139 - 109
May 12, 2026
MIN @ SA
97 - 126
May 10, 2026
SA @ MIN
109 - 114
May 8, 2026
SA @ MIN
115 - 108
May 6, 2026
MIN @ SA
95 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+23.0% more
San Antonio: 9.2
vs
Minnesota: 7.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.3%
San Antonio: 86.7%
vs
Minnesota: 74.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+34.4% more
Minnesota: 15.7
vs
San Antonio: 11.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Minnesota: 39.3%
vs
San Antonio: 36.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
110.0
112
MIN Score
96.0
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.3 / 36.5
46.0 / 24.0
Assists
26.1 / 25.3
35.0 / 17.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.8
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 46.7
56.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
74.4 / 86.7
77.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
43.6 / 44.4
36.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.1 / 9.2
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
15.7 / 11.7
13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
SA
MIN
SA
ML
54%
63-53
60%
111-73
54%
50-43
58%
61-44
ATS
58%
67-49
58%
107-76-1
54%
50-43
58%
61-44
TTL
63%
72-43-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
93-0
100%
105-0
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