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TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

3-3  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 2:00 PM ET
McKenzie Arena
View Odds Details →

CHATTANOOGA

MOCSUTC

4-3  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
MOCS
100%
TIGERS --
MOCS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tennessee State)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 MocsUTC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

57.9%

Mocs Cover

42.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TNST -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)

TNST By 1-7 points

26.8%

TNST By 8-14 points

18.6%

UTC By 1-7 points

23.0%

UTC By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
63
TENNESSEE STATE
61
CHATTANOOGA
Simulated Score
68
TENNESSEE STATE
72
CHATTANOOGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mocs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Mocs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 TNST @ UTC 70 - 64
Nov 25, 2024 TNST @ UTC 78 - 85
Dec 22, 2020 UTC @ TNST 66 - 63
Nov 9, 2019 TNST @ UTC 57 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +50.7% more
Tennessee State: 12.9 vs Chattanooga: 6.4
Turnovers (L5) +37.0% more
Tennessee State: 16.1 vs Chattanooga: 10.1
Assists (L5) +45.4% more
Chattanooga: 17.9 vs Tennessee State: 12.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +16.9%
Chattanooga: 36.0% vs Tennessee State: 19.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 63.0 70
UTC Score 61.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 19.1 29.0 / 33.0
Assists 17.9 / 12.3 13.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.1 / 2.3 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 46.4 36.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 76.7 86.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 38.1 / 38.8 31.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.4 / 12.9 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 16.1 7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
UTC
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
UTC
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTC
TNST
UTC
TNST
ML
48% 15-16
52% 16-15
53% 16-14
63% 17-10
ATS
52% 16-15
68% 21-10
55% 17-14
64% 18-10
TTL
77% 24-7
52% 16-15
100% 31-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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