ST. BONAVENTURE
BONNIESSBU
7-1 | Road
70
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
OWLSFAU
5-3 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
0%
OWLS
100%
BONNIES
--
OWLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
ST. BONAVENTURE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (St. Bonaventure)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SBU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SBU)
SBU By 1-7 points
24.3%
SBU By 8-14 points
26.8%
FAU By 1-7 points
12.2%
FAU By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Bonaventure
79
ST. BONAVENTURE
Florida Atlantic
70
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Simulated Score
St. Bonaventure
72
ST. BONAVENTURE
Florida Atlantic
76
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bonnies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Owls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bonnies (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Owls (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 30, 2025
SBU @ FAU
70 - 65
Dec 16, 2023
FAU @ SBU
64 - 54
Dec 2, 2019
SBU @ FAU
71 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+30.3% more
St. Bonaventure: 7.5
vs
Florida Atlantic: 5.2
Turnovers (L5)
+9.4% more
St. Bonaventure: 12.3
vs
Florida Atlantic: 11.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
St. Bonaventure: 36.5%
vs
Florida Atlantic: 32.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Florida Atlantic: 46.2%
vs
St. Bonaventure: 44.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SBU Score
79.0
70
FAU Score
70.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 36.5
30.0 / 43.0
Assists
13.5 / 14.4
11.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.3 / 5.5
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 44.1
41.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
76.9 / 75.7
64.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
36.3 / 36.3
37.0 / 29.0
Steals
5.2 / 7.5
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 12.3
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
FAU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
FAU
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +5.1
FAU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
SBU
FAU
SBU
ML
64%
21-12
59%
20-14
66%
21-11
61%
20-13
ATS
70%
23-10
50%
17-17
66%
21-11
61%
20-13
TTL
58%
19-14
38%
13-21
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
McLeod Promoted to Head Women’s Basketball Coach
Mar 4, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels…
Mike McCarthy came home to Pittsburgh, his family and the grief …
Steelers A to Z: Undrafted rookie DT Kevin Jobity Jr. bolstered …
Rowan legends: Lu starred in 3 sports, has coached for 44 seasons