TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
10-11-3 | Road
7
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
12-6-5 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Troy Stecher
#28 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Arturs Silovs
#37 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Stecher | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Arturs Silovs | None-None | 9.75 | 0.600 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
9.75
--
Save %
0.600
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
PENGUINS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
PIT By 1 goal
19.7%
PIT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 23, 2025
PIT @ TOR
3 - 6
Nov 29, 2025
TOR @ PIT
7 - 2
Nov 3, 2025
PIT @ TOR
3 - 4
Mar 2, 2025
TOR @ PIT
6 - 5
Dec 7, 2024
TOR @ PIT
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+18.5% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Blocked Shots (L5)
+9.5% more
Pittsburgh: 15.1
vs
Toronto: 13.8
Hits (L5)
+35.0% more
Toronto: 24.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 15.9
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.7%
Toronto: 58.7%
vs
Pittsburgh: 52.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.0
7
PIT Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.1 / 13.8
11.0 / 26.0
Faceoff %
52.0 / 58.7
45.5 / 54.5
Hits
15.9 / 24.5
16.0 / 19.0
Power Play %
7.1 / 6.2
33.3 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
23.9 / 24.8
35.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
4.7 / 4.0
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
TOR
PIT
TOR
ML
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
Contextual Game News
Avalanche Erupt for Seven Goals to Torch Flames at Scotiabank Sa…
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
Joseph Woll's Strong Start in Philadelphia Has Maple Leafs Fans …
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear