BOSTON UNIVERSITY
TERRIERSBU
3-4 | Road
65
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
5-2 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
TERRIERS
0%
NORSE
100%
TERRIERS
--
NORSE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston University)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BU)
BU By 1-7 points
26.2%
BU By 8-14 points
16.9%
NKU By 1-7 points
24.3%
NKU By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston University
65
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Northern Kentucky
64
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Boston University
68
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Northern Kentucky
72
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Terriers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Norse
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Terriers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Norse (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 29, 2025
BU @ NKU
65 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+10.4% more
Boston University: 17.0
vs
Northern Kentucky: 15.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Boston University: 40.9%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 38.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Boston University: 52.1%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 49.7%
Steals (L5)
+78.1% more
Northern Kentucky: 9.4
vs
Boston University: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BU Score
65.0
65
NKU Score
64.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 40.9
28.0 / 38.0
Assists
15.2 / 17.0
11.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.7 / 3.5
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.7 / 52.1
38.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 65.9
83.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 27.9
33.0 / 24.0
Steals
9.4 / 5.3
10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 10.8
11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BU
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: +0.2
NKU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: +0.2
NKU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +8.4
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NKU
BU
NKU
BU
ML
53%
18-16
68%
23-11
65%
22-12
62%
21-13
ATS
56%
19-15
62%
21-13
65%
22-12
62%
21-13
TTL
68%
23-11
65%
22-12
100%
34-0
100%
34-0
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