Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Eagles SCST @ WIN

SOUTH CAROLINA STATE

BULLDOGSSCST

0-8  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 4:00 PM ET
Winthrop Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WINTHROP

EAGLESWIN

4-4  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
BULLDOGS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
WINTHROP
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Winthrop)
BulldogsSCST (-3.5) 0 EaglesWIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

1.1%

Eagles Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIN -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIN)

SCST By 1-7 points

0.8%

SCST By 8-14 points

0.1%

WIN By 1-7 points

4.8%

WIN By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
70
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
93
WINTHROP
Simulated Score
72
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
78
WINTHROP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (-20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 SCST @ WIN 79 - 101
Dec 6, 2022 SCST @ WIN 67 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +41.6% more
Winthrop: 15.6 vs South Carolina State: 11.0
Rebounding (L5) +28.0% more
Winthrop: 39.3 vs South Carolina State: 30.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Winthrop: 36.7% vs South Carolina State: 30.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Winthrop: 43.8% vs South Carolina State: 38.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SCST Score 70.0 79
WIN Score 93.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 30.8 38.0 / 43.0
Assists 15.6 / 11.0 23.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.4 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 38.7 56.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 70.9 / 70.5 87.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 39.3 / 30.7 40.0 / 26.0
Steals 5.3 / 6.9 11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 13.3 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
WIN Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCST Advantage
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
WIN
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SCST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.6
WIN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIN
SCST
WIN
SCST
ML
70% 23-10
61% 19-12
79% 26-7
74% 20-7
ATS
79% 26-7
68% 21-10
79% 26-7
74% 20-7
TTL
58% 19-14
52% 16-15
100% 33-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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