AI Model Win Probability
BIG GREEN
0%
PEACOCKS
100%
BIG GREEN
--
PEACOCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
DARTMOUTH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Dartmouth)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DART -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DART)
DART By 1-7 points
18.6%
DART By 8-14 points
26.8%
SPU By 1-7 points
6.8%
SPU By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Dartmouth
80
DARTMOUTH
Saint Peter's
67
SAINT PETER'S
Simulated Score
Dartmouth
65
DARTMOUTH
Saint Peter's
71
SAINT PETER'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Big Green
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Peacocks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Big Green (-4)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Peacocks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 29, 2025
DART @ SPU
87 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+30.9% more
Dartmouth: 4.3
vs
Saint Peter's: 3.0
Assists (L5)
+28.2% more
Dartmouth: 17.7
vs
Saint Peter's: 12.7
Rebounding (L5)
+25.0% more
Dartmouth: 42.7
vs
Saint Peter's: 32.0
Turnovers (L5)
+18.5% more
Dartmouth: 14.0
vs
Saint Peter's: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DART Score
80.0
87
SPU Score
67.0
61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 34.4
17.0 / 46.0
Assists
12.7 / 17.7
7.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.3
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
37.3 / 44.1
33.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
83.5 / 72.5
88.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
32.0 / 42.7
32.0 / 39.0
Steals
12.9 / 5.6
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 14.0
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DART
11-16-0
(40.7%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.5
SPU
Advantage
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DART
11-14-0
(44.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.5
SPU
Advantage
16-11-1
(59.3%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DART
12-13-0
O: 48.0% / U: 52.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
SPU
10-18-0
O: 35.7% / U: 64.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SPU
DART
SPU
DART
ML
64%
18-10
62%
16-10
71%
20-8
50%
13-13
ATS
71%
20-8
65%
17-9
71%
20-8
50%
13-13
TTL
61%
17-11
88%
23-3
100%
28-0
100%
26-0