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SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

4-5  |  Road

54
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 10:00 PM ET
Alex G. Spanos Center
View Odds Details →

PACIFIC

TIGERSPAC

6-2  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
HORNETS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
PACIFIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HornetsSAC (-3.5) 0 TigersPAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

34.5%

Tigers Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PAC +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

27.4%

SAC By 8-14 points

21.6%

PAC By 1-7 points

20.1%

PAC By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
70
SACRAMENTO STATE
66
PACIFIC
Simulated Score
69
SACRAMENTO STATE
76
PACIFIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hornets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 SAC @ PAC 54 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +45.1% more
Sacramento State: 4.4 vs Pacific: 2.4
Assists (L5) +33.9% more
Sacramento State: 15.8 vs Pacific: 10.4
Steals (L5) +33.5% more
Sacramento State: 7.6 vs Pacific: 5.0
Rebounding (L5) +10.0% more
Sacramento State: 44.2 vs Pacific: 39.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 70.0 54
PAC Score 66.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 30.1 33.0 / 22.0
Assists 10.4 / 15.8 20.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.4 / 4.4 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 39.3 41.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 76.6 / 69.8 75.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 39.8 / 44.2 49.0 / 32.0
Steals 5.0 / 7.6 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 11.7 16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
PAC Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
PAC Advantage
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PAC
SAC
PAC
SAC
ML
45% 15-18
57% 17-13
80% 24-6
87% 26-4
ATS
55% 18-15
73% 22-8
80% 24-6
87% 27-4
TTL
58% 19-14
60% 18-12
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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