INDIANA STATE
SYCAMORESINST
4-4 | Road
74
ALCORN STATE
BRAVESALCN
1-7 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
SYCAMORES
0%
BRAVES
100%
SYCAMORES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.0
ALCORN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALCN +11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALCN)
INST By 1-7 points
21.6%
INST By 8-14 points
27.4%
ALCN By 1-7 points
9.3%
ALCN By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana State
84
INDIANA STATE
Alcorn State
73
ALCORN STATE
Simulated Score
Indiana State
78
INDIANA STATE
Alcorn State
65
ALCORN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sycamores
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sycamores
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+12)
Win
Proj Spread: +11.0
D
Sim
Sycamores (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 28, 2025
INST @ ALCN
74 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+32.7% more
Indiana State: 15.3
vs
Alcorn State: 10.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+20.5%
Indiana State: 83.6%
vs
Alcorn State: 63.0%
Rebounding (L5)
+9.9% more
Indiana State: 33.4
vs
Alcorn State: 30.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Indiana State: 45.3%
vs
Alcorn State: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
INST Score
84.0
74
ALCN Score
73.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 27.9
30.0 / 21.0
Assists
10.3 / 15.3
8.0 / 15.0
Blocks
4.7 / 1.8
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 45.3
51.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
63.0 / 83.6
61.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
30.1 / 33.4
43.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.4 / 5.2
13.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
16.0 / 11.8
20.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST
Advantage
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
ALCN
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
ALCN
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALCN
INST
ALCN
INST
ML
66%
21-11
66%
21-11
75%
18-6
53%
17-15
ATS
68%
21-10-1
62%
20-12
75%
18-6
53%
17-15
TTL
47%
15-17
53%
17-15
100%
24-0
100%
32-0
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